AI Warning Report Puts Infosys, Tata Consultancy Services and Wipro Under Pressure

Indian IT Sector Under Threat? AI Report Raises Alarm for Major Tech Firms

A recent report by Citrini Research has triggered widespread discussion about the future of India’s IT industry, warning that rapid advances in artificial intelligence could severely disrupt the sector by 2028.

Titled “The 2028 Global Intelligence Crisis”, the report presents a hypothetical scenario in which large-scale AI automation leads to job losses, economic instability, and a sharp slowdown in IT services exports.

AI Could Disrupt India’s $200 Billion IT Industry

According to the report, India’s IT services sector—currently valued at over $200 billion in annual exports—may face major setbacks as global companies increasingly adopt AI-powered coding tools.

These tools, known as AI coding agents, can perform many software development tasks at a fraction of traditional costs. As a result, overseas clients may reduce or cancel contracts with Indian IT firms.

The report argues that the long-standing advantage of Indian companies—providing skilled developers at lower costs than Western markets—could lose relevance as AI becomes cheaper and more efficient.

Major IT Companies in Focus

The analysis highlights potential risks for leading Indian IT players, such as:

• Tata Consultancy Services (TCS)
• Infosys
• Wipro

It suggests that these companies could see a rise in contract cancellations between 2026 and 2027 as clients shift toward AI-driven solutions.

 Impact on Economy and Currency

Beyond corporate performance, the report also warns of broader economic consequences. A sharp decline in IT exports could weaken India’s services surplus, which plays a key role in stabilising foreign exchange reserves.

In its projected scenario, the report claims that the Indian rupee could depreciate by nearly 18% within four months due to falling export revenues.

By early 2028, the situation could become serious enough for international bodies like the International Monetary Fund to initiate preliminary discussions with the Indian government.

 Why AI Is Seen as a Game Changer

The report explains that AI tools are rapidly reducing the cost of software development. While Indian developers once had a major pricing advantage over Western counterparts, AI systems now operate at minimal marginal cost—mainly electricity and infrastructure.

This shift could fundamentally alter outsourcing models that have supported India’s IT boom for decades.

 A Hypothetical but Cautionary Scenario

It is important to note that the report presents a worst-case projection, not a confirmed outcome. Many industry experts believe Indian IT firms are already investing in AI, digital transformation, and high-value services to stay competitive.

However, the study serves as a warning that companies must adapt quickly to avoid disruption.

Conclusion

Citrini Research’s report paints a challenging picture of how AI could reshape India’s IT sector by 2028. If companies fail to evolve, they may face declining contracts, revenue pressure, and macroeconomic consequences.

At the same time, firms that successfully integrate AI into their services may turn this disruption into an opportunity for long-term growth.